Story Highlight
– Organised players to capture 45% market share by FY30.
– Indian jewellery market to grow to $150 billion by FY33E.
– Organised players grew 1.5x faster than the industry.
– Weddings drive 50-55% of jewellery market demand.
– E-commerce presents significant growth opportunities for organised players.
Full Story
The Indian gold jewellery sector is on the cusp of substantial growth, with organised players forecasted to capture a 45 per cent market share by the fiscal year 2030. This projection, detailed in a report by Nomura, reflects the robust expansion of the jewellery market in India, which has seen its value soar from $48 billion in FY18 to an anticipated $90 billion by FY25, translating to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9 per cent. Furthermore, projections suggest the market could reach approximately $150 billion by FY33E.
According to the report, organised sector entities are outpacing the overall industry growth, achieving a CAGR of 14 per cent between FY18 and FY25—1.5 times faster than the broader market. Their market share has surged from 30 per cent in FY18 to 40 per cent in FY24, with an expected increase to 45 per cent by FY30E.
This growth trajectory is primarily attributed to a deep-seated cultural inclination towards jewellery in India. Weddings, which account for 50-55 per cent of the jewellery market demand, play a pivotal role, bolstered by a demographic wave of potential brides and grooms. Currently, about 25 per cent of India’s populace is within the “marriageable” age bracket, a figure projected to rise from 365 million in 2023 to 390 million by 2030.
An expanding income base is also driving demand in the daily wear and fashion jewellery segments. Nomura’s report indicates that organised players are reaping the benefits of improved regulations, superior craftsmanship, and heightened standards of purity and transparency—critical factors in a market where trust is paramount.
While high gold prices pose a challenge, these organised firms have adapted by offering innovative solutions such as instalment plans, old gold exchange schemes, and lightweight jewellery options. Additionally, the burgeoning e-commerce sector—currently only 6 per cent penetrated—presents further opportunities for growth, particularly as these companies expand into underserved Tier 2, Tier 3, and Tier 4 markets.
The report underscores that jewellery remains a fundamental category within the discretionary spending sector, appealing to a wide range of economic demographics. As the affluent population continues to grow, the demand for jewellery is likely to persist, positioning organised players as the primary beneficiaries of this ongoing industry transformation.