UK Protection’s figures show that armed attacks on jewellery and watch retailers rose by 183% in the first five months of 2026 versus the whole of 2025. What is driving that pace of escalation?
There is no single cause. What we are seeing is the result of several pressures converging at the same time.
The value and liquidity of gold, watches, and jewellery make retailers extremely attractive targets.
These goods which are often small items with high value can be removed quickly, transported easily and converted into cash through domestic and international criminal networks or by simply popping them into an envelope and dropping it in the nearest post box.
At the same time, organised gangs have become more confident, more mobile, and more willing to use violence or the threat of violence.
The speed of the escalation also indicates that offenders believe the potential rewards outweigh the risks.
Many attacks are being carried out rapidly, with offenders using stolen vehicles, disguises, weapons and pre-planned escape routes.
They may only be inside a store for a matter of minutes, but the planning behind the attack can be extensive, and they often visit the location before a robbery.
Another concern is inconsistency in the standard of security across the retail sector. Some businesses have invested heavily in physical protection, experienced suppliers, staff training and incident planning, while others remain dependent on measures that may be primarily visual or designed around cost rather than the actual threat.
Criminal groups identify weaknesses. They look for predictable routines, lightly protected deliveries, poor access control, inexperienced security personnel and stores where staff have not been properly trained to respond.
Once a vulnerability becomes known, information can spread quickly within criminal networks. This is not simply an increase in opportunistic shoplifting. It represents a more organised, violent and commercially minded form of criminality.
You’ve described the current climate as a “perfect storm” of rising gold prices, cost-of-living pressure and more organised gangs. Which of those factors is having the biggest impact on the ground right now, and how do you see it evolving over the next 12 months?
The growing organisation and confidence of these gangs is having the greatest immediate impact on the ground.
Economic pressures and the rising value of gold contribute to the attractiveness of jewellery crime, but they do not fully explain the level of planning, violence and coordination we are now seeing.
The key change is that more offenders appear to be treating attacks on jewellery and watch retailers as organised criminal enterprises rather than isolated offences.
They are selecting targets, conducting reconnaissance, identifying delivery patterns, and assessing the likely response from staff, security teams and the police.
They increasingly understand which products are easiest to dispose of, which stores carry high-value stock and where security arrangements may be weakest. Most robberies we are seeing are pre-planned and not opportunistic.
The rise in gold prices is particularly significant because stolen gold has an immediate underlying commodity value. It can be broken down, melted or moved through criminal markets, making recovery and identification almost impossible.
High-value watches and branded jewellery can also be sold internationally.
Over the next 12 months, I expect offenders to continue becoming more selective and intelligence led.
Better-protected stores may displace criminal activity towards smaller independents, regional locations, stock movements, private appointments, and other points in the supply chain.
Retailers must therefore avoid viewing security solely as something that happens at the front door. The threat extends from the moment goods enter the supply chain until they reach the customer or return to secure storage.
Data shows armed involvement jumping from around 27% of attacks in 2025 to over 56% in 2026, with average losses per robbery climbing from roughly £23k to £137k. What does that tell us about how organised these gangs have become, and how are their tactics changing?
The data from SaferGems shows an increase in armed involvement and the significant rise in average losses suggest that these are becoming more targeted, more aggressive and more professionally organised attacks.
Weapons are often used to establish immediate control. Their purpose is not always to cause injury, although that risk is clearly present.
They are used to create fear, prevent resistance, and give offenders the time needed to access higher-value stock. On some occasions they’ve needed staff to use their own keys to open cabinets and weapons are the best tool to create compliance.
The increase in average losses suggests that gangs are arriving with a clearer understanding of what they want and where it is likely to be located.
They may know which cabinets contain the most valuable items, when deliveries take place, how many employees are likely to be present and what security response they can expect.
We are also seeing greater use of multiple vehicles, cloned or stolen registration plates, face coverings, false identities, and coordinated roles.
One individual may control the entrance, others may target display cabinets or safes, while additional offenders remain outside to manage vehicles and escape routes. This level of organisation cannot be addressed by relying on appearance alone.
A person wearing a security uniform is not automatically an effective security measure. Retailers need personnel who understand hostile reconnaissance, behavioural indicators, access control, emergency procedures, evidence preservation and the particular risks associated with high-value retail.
The SaferGems figures demonstrate that the threat has evolved and so retailers’ security arrangements must evolve with it.
UK Protection’s RAID training courses have just been launched to the wider market. Why now, and what gap were you seeing that made this necessary?
The original RAID concept was developed by me in 2012 after identifying a significant gap between conventional security training and the realities faced by employees working in high-risk retail environments.
Bank robberies all but stopped due to banks not handling large amounts of cash anymore. However the bank robbers didn’t simply disappear, they just switched their attention to watches and jewellery.
Many of UK Protection’s courses focus heavily on routine procedures, customer service and general conflict management.
Those subjects are important, but they do not fully prepare someone for a fast-moving, violent attack involving weapons, multiple offenders and extreme psychological pressure.
We repeatedly saw that employees, managers and security officers could understand a written policy but still be uncertain about what to do when confronted by a real incident.
In an emergency, people do not have time to search through a manual. Their response must come from practical knowledge, prior preparation and clear decision-making principles.
UK Protection has now launched RAID more widely because the threat has escalated and because retailers outside our own client base are asking how they can better prepare their staff.
The course is not about turning retail employees into police officers or encouraging them to confront offenders. It is about helping people recognise risk, make safer decisions, protect life, communicate effectively and respond in a way that supports the subsequent police and insurance investigation.
Retailers frequently invest heavily in buildings, cameras, alarms and product protection while overlooking the people who must operate those systems under pressure. RAID addresses that gap.
Can you talk us through what a RAID course actually covers day to day, and what tangibly changes for participants once they have completed it?
UK Protection’s RAID combines classroom learning, discussion, practical exercises, and realistic scenario-based training.
Participants learn how robberies and organised attacks are planned, including the warning signs of hostile reconnaissance, suspicious behaviour and pre-incident information gathering.
We examine how offenders may test a store’s procedures, observe staff routines or attempt to identify weaknesses before an attack.
The course covers everything from personal safety, decision-making under pressure, lockdown and evacuation principles, communication, alarm activation, interaction with emergency services, as well as the management of customers and colleagues during an incident.
We also address what happens immediately after an attack. That includes preserving evidence, protecting the scene, avoiding contamination, recording observations, supporting witnesses, and ensuring that important information is not lost during the confusion that follows.
A major part of the training concerns human behaviour. People can freeze, panic, become disorientated or unintentionally place themselves in greater danger.
Understanding these reactions helps individuals respond more effectively and helps managers support their teams afterwards.
The tangible change is confidence based on preparation rather than false reassurance. Participants leave with a clearer understanding of their role, what actions are appropriate and, importantly, what actions should be avoided.
The objective is not confrontation. The priority is the preservation of life, followed by effective communication, incident control, and the protection of evidence.
The new armoured transport service is designed to tackle chronic underinsurance in the sector. How exposed are jewellers currently when moving high-value stock, and why did you decide to build this in-house rather than partner with a provider?
The exposure can be considerable, particularly where a retailer assumes that a courier, vehicle or security company is insured for the full retail value of the goods being transported.
There can be a substantial difference between the value of an item and the amount recoverable under a provider’s insurance.
Policies may contain low limits, territorial restrictions, unattended-vehicle exclusions, requirements relating to the number of personnel used and different limits depending on whether goods are inside a vehicle, being carried across a pavement or temporarily stored.
Retailers must not simply just ask: “Are you insured?” They need to ask what the insured limit is, whether it applies to their specific consignment, whether the valuation is retail or wholesale, what exclusions apply and whether the entire journey is covered.
UK Protection developed the service in-house because we wanted control over the complete security chain: personnel selection, training, vehicles, operating procedures, risk assessments, communications, journey planning, incident response and insurance arrangements.
UK Protection’s service is designed around the realities of the jewellery and watch sector rather than treating high-value goods as conventional parcels.
We carry a higher than normal insurance limit which enables us to move unique pieces of extremely high value. Building the service internally also allows us to combine secure logistics with our wider experience in high-value retail security.
At UK Protection, we understand the risks at the collection point, during loading, throughout the journey and at the final handover.
The most dangerous point is not necessarily while the vehicle is moving. Vulnerability often increases during loading, unloading and the short distance between the vehicle and the secure premises.
With so much industry investment going into tech-led security, where should the balance sit between physical, human security and digital tools?
Technology is essential, but it should support a wider security strategy rather than be treated as a substitute for people, procedures and professional judgement.
CCTV, access control, alarms, tracking systems, fogging devices, remote monitoring and artificial intelligence can all provide valuable layers of protection. They can deter offenders, identify suspicious behaviour, alert control rooms and preserve important evidence.
However, technology cannot always interpret context, reassure frightened employees, challenge suspicious activity appropriately, manage an evacuation or make complex decisions during a rapidly changing incident.
The best security model integrates three elements: physical protection, technology and trained people. Physical security delays and restricts offenders. Technology detects, records and communicates. Experienced people interpret information and take proportionate action.
Problems arise when retailers invest heavily in visible technology, but reduce the quality or experience of security personnel to recover the cost.
A sophisticated system is only as effective as those operating it and the procedures supporting it. Security decisions should be based on risk rather than appearance or price alone.
The correct balance will vary between locations, but each layer should complement the others. No single measure should be expected to carry the entire responsibility for protecting people and high-value stock.
For a retailer who has not reviewed their security since last year, what are the most important steps they should take now?
The first step should be a fresh, evidence-based security risk assessment and audit. The threat has changed significantly, so an assessment completed five years ago may no longer reflect current criminal methods or the value of the stock now being held.
The review should examine the full operation rather than just the sales floor. That includes opening and closing procedures, deliveries, staff entrances, private appointments, keyholding, alarm response, stock transfers, lone working, physical characteristics of the building such as shop windows and doors and the movement of goods between locations.
Retailers should test whether their written procedures work in practice. Employees should understand what to do during a robbery, where to move, how to activate alarms, who communicates with the police and how customers will be protected. They should also review the competence of their security suppliers.
Price is relevant, but it cannot be the principal measure of suitability. Retailers should examine a provider’s experience, supervision, training, management structure, insurance, incident response capability and understanding of high-value retail.
All of this should be easily demonstratable by an experienced and competent supplier. Don’t always believe the sales pitch. Boards and senior managers should be able to demonstrate why important security decisions were made.
Following a serious incident, investigators, insurers or regulators may examine whether known risks were properly assessed and whether cost savings were prioritised over reasonable protective measures.
Finally, retailers should conduct practical exercises. A policy that has never been rehearsed may fail when it is needed most. Training and scenario testing expose weaknesses before criminals do.
Where do you see the threat landscape heading in 2027?
I expect the threat to remain elevated and to become increasingly intelligence-led. Better-protected flagship stores may be more difficult to attack, but that does not necessarily remove the threat.
It can displace it towards independent retailers, smaller regional stores, travelling sales representatives, private client appointments, exhibitions, stock movements and employees who may be followed away from work.
We are also likely to see greater crossover between physical and digital criminality. Information obtained through social media, compromised communications, online research or insider access can be used to support a physical attack.
Criminal groups will continue to study retailers’ routines and adapt to new protective measures. That means security cannot be reviewed once a year as a compliance exercise and then left unchanged. It must be treated as a continuing management responsibility.
The retailers best placed to manage the threat will be those that create genuine layers of protection: good intelligence, strong physical measures, appropriate technology, experienced security suppliers, properly trained employees and tested incident plans.
The industry must also become more willing to share information. Criminal networks do not respect company boundaries, and intelligence about suspicious behaviour, vehicles, methods and attempted attacks can help to actually protect the wider sector.
My concern heading into 2027 is not simply that offences will increase. It is that the level of violence and planning may continue to escalate. Retailers should prepare on the basis of the threat they are likely to face next, not the threat they experienced several years ago.
To find out more about how UK Protection can help your business and for guidance on retail security, RAID training courses, high value secure transport or security audits, visit UK Protection Ltd’s website: ukprotectionltd.co.uk, call 0844 384 3444 or email info@ukprotectionltd.co.uk
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