Story Highlight
– Rising demand for top brands led to waiting lists.
– Independent brands gained popularity amidst market changes.
– Vintage and historically significant pieces drive collector interest.
– Retailers adapt by prioritizing exclusive relationships with independents.
– Value, not price, now influences luxury watch purchases.
Full Story
Rob Corder, editor-at-large of WatchPro, shares his insights on the transformation occurring within the luxury watch industry and the implications for high-end manufacturers and retailers.
Corder utilises a set of heat maps generated with ChatGPT to illustrate considerable changes at the upper echelons of the watch sector over the last five years. The journey commenced with an upsurge in interest for iconic brands like Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe during the pandemic. This surge resulted in extended waiting lists at authorised dealers and significantly inflated prices in a rapidly evolving secondary market.
As a surge of “flippers” capitalised on limited supply, many authorised dealers began directing customers towards less sought-after brands as a prerequisite for access to the coveted pieces from the top three. Consequently, this growth in sales proliferated across numerous luxury brands, culminating in record highs for companies such as Breitling, Tudor, Omega, Cartier, TAG Heuer, and IWC in the 2022/23 fiscal year.
To maintain this momentum, manufacturers sought to bolster relationships with their retail partners by encouraging the establishment of monobrand boutiques, leading to a rapid increase globally. However, the early signs of a decline were evident, with demand increasingly tied to the perceived value retention associated with watches from the most sought-after labels.
Following the collapse of the price bubble in the secondary market in mid-2022, there has been a contraction in demand for brands situated further from the epicentre of high demand. The latest analysis showcases a significant concentration of sales, both in numbers and value, with the most coveted brands, although even established giants like Rolex have noted a decrease in captivating interest since 2022-23.
The positive development in this narrative is the emergence of a larger, diverse audience embracing luxury watches, particularly in the early 2020s. Many new clients were drawn by the belief they were investing in appreciating assets, while the emotional allure of wristwatches—combining status, beauty, craftsmanship, and heritage—has helped to sustain interest among newer enthusiasts.
While there are more potential customers now than in the 2010s, numbers have waned from the height of 2022-23.
A noteworthy shift in interest has also seen independent brands such as F.P. Journe, Voutilainen, Rexhep Rexhepi/Akrivia, and Philippe Dufour garner attention, often viewed as contemporary masters of horology. Collectors remain intrigued by the historical significance of older models rather than current offerings from established labels.
Demand in the secondary market is growing for historical references from Patek Philippe, including models like the 3970 and 5004, as collectors increasingly prioritise rarity and legacy over modern pieces. Despite a sustainable interest for top brands, some newer Patek models are being offloaded at steep discounts, with certain complications seeing price reductions of up to 50%.
Major auctions held in Geneva, New York, and Hong Kong in late 2025 and early 2026 reflected the escalating interest in both independent brands and vintage offerings from top manufacturers. With F.P. Journe leading the charge, a Chronomètre à Résonance recently fetched $15.1 million, exemplifying the brand’s rising status, while even more typical pieces of the collection command prices significantly higher than a decade prior.
When summarising the evolution of the watch industry since 2020, it is evident that demand is currently both higher than at the end of the previous decade and yet significantly reduced from the peak witnessed in 2023. The appetite for luxury watches is now primarily concentrated among a select few major brands, alongside an increasing number of independent makers.
However, contemporary collectors are now more discerning and better informed than ever, often sceptical about the automatic prestige associated with historic Swiss brands. Instead, the emphasis is shifting towards value—drawing interest from manufacturers worldwide, including Japanese and American companies that are outperforming traditional Swiss brands.
In response, retailers are re-evaluating their strategies. The once booming trend of establishing monobrand stores has begun to reverse, particularly for brands like TAG Heuer and Breitling, as the remaining giants opt to invest heavily in retail setups for Rolex and Patek Philippe.
Brands that are lagging, including Panerai and Jaeger-LeCoultre, are finding it increasingly difficult to compete, creating opportunities for rising stars within the independent sector. Retailers are keen to affiliate themselves with influential newcomers, underscored by recent partnerships between major retailers and independent watchmakers, further enhancing their portfolios.
As businesses learn from the post-pandemic surge, the ability to manage scarcity and cultivate customer loyalty through purchase history is becoming a critical strategy. This adaptability is essential, alongside efforts to engage a broader audience to nurture future collectors.
The emergence of strategies blending exclusivity with variety has become paramount in the watch retail landscape. As the market dynamics continue to evolve, experienced retailers find themselves increasingly vital to nurturing the success of the global luxury watch industry.
