Story Highlight
– Watches and Wonders influences both retail and pre-owned markets.
– Discontinued models rapidly increase demand and value.
– Speculation around Rolex Pepsi GMT affects secondary prices.
– New releases lead collectors to seek older references.
– Post-show analysis reveals true collector sentiment and value.
Full Story
Every year, the Watches and Wonders event plays a pivotal role in shaping the watch industry. It serves as a platform for brands to introduce new models, phase out old ones, and highlight trends that may influence consumer demand. While much of the media focus is on the retail introductions, the implications for collectors and the secondary market often extend well beyond the event itself.
Bob’s Watches, the leading pre-owned Rolex marketplace in the US, has monitored secondary market transactions for over ten years. Insights drawn from this extensive data highlight a crucial point: Watches and Wonders not only influences retail pricing but also has a significant impact on demand and collector interest within the pre-owned sector—even before the event concludes.
**The Ripple Effect of the Show**
Our analysis of customer behavior, pricing, and sales trends across the pre-owned market reveals a consistent pattern. Each April, when Watches and Wonders occurs, there is a marked shift in collector behaviour almost immediately. Updates to models, discontinuations, or the revival of classic designs prompt collectors to reevaluate their collections and desires. The trading activity that follows often persists for months, giving a clearer insight into collector sentiment compared to retail activity.
**The Impact of Discontinuations**
Among the factors affecting the pre-owned market, confirmed discontinuations generate the most immediate response. Once a reference is officially retired, its availability becomes limited. Consequently, collectors who hesitated previously are likely to act swiftly upon realizing that new stock will not reappear. For instance, the discontinuation of the Milgauss and Cellini models at Watches and Wonders 2023 led those who possessed these references to perceive their items as more desirable, given their now-fixed supply.
Looking ahead to Watches & Wonders 2026, a similar trend is anticipated where pre-market speculation will start influencing prices long before official announcements are made.
**Rolex GMT-Master II “Pepsi” as a Market Indicator**
An observable trend may already be underway with the Rolex GMT-Master II “Pepsi.” There has been increasing speculation about the future of the steel reference 126710BLRO and its white gold counterpart, which itself has become a signal within the market. Although Rolex has not confirmed any changes, heightened collector interest surrounding this model is evident and significant for the secondary market.
Data shows dramatic shifts in sentiment regarding this timepiece; the average pre-owned price for Pepsi bezel GMT references escalated from approximately £6,100 in 2015 to reaching about £18,700 by the peak of the market in 2022. Following a correction, prices have stabilised in the £19,600 to £20,200 range by late 2025, coinciding with increased speculation.
Regardless of potential announcements at this year’s event, the performance of the Pepsi model leading up to Watches and Wonders is indicative of how the secondary market reacts to anticipatory pricing—a dynamic that retail pricing often overlooks.
**Influence of New Releases on Collectors**
Discontinuations are not the sole narrative as new releases can also redirect collector interest back towards older models. This phenomenon transcends brand boundaries; new heritage-inspired launches tend to rekindle interest in the original pieces they reference, ultimately driving buyers towards vintage and early production models that may have been previously neglected. For instance, modern OMEGA Speedmaster variants prompt renewed activity for early Pre-Moon references, while Tudor’s updates might steer collectors towards earlier tool watch versions.
Brands should take note: a strategically timed release can have far-reaching effects, not just fostering immediate retail interest but also enhancing the overall legacy of a reference family within the secondary market. This impact contributes to sustained desirability well beyond the initial launch.
**What to Anticipate Post-Event**
The period following Watches and Wonders often proves more consequential than the event itself. Discreet removals from the catalog, models that were not refreshed, or unanticipated reintroductions all carry significant market implications that unfold over time. Some of the best opportunities within the pre-owned sector emerge shortly after the event, as the broader collector community takes time to fully absorb the changes.
Retail launches may outline the initial narrative, but the secondary market lays bare the true value perceived by collectors. Insights from over fifteen years of transaction data affirm this understanding, highlighting the part of Watches and Wonders that merits the closest scrutiny, as it reveals the authentic measures of value and demand in the marketplace. For brands influencing this discussion, the secondary market is not merely an ancillary consideration; it is a vital metric of success.
