Story Highlight
– Rolex prices may soon fall below retail prices.
– Audemars Piguet’s secondary market premium is just 0.7%.
– Patek Philippe leads with a 10.7% resale premium.
– Major brands seeing consolidation with mixed secondary market performance.
– Rolex Certified Pre-Owned sales surged over 60% in 2025.
Full Story
Secondary market prices for Rolex watches are nearing a significant threshold, potentially falling below their suggested retail prices this year unless there is an uptick in pre-owned values as new models become pricier.
Currently, Audemars Piguet is also approaching this tipping point, having recorded just a 0.7% premium in the secondary market this month.
Patek Philippe remains at the top of the resale value hierarchy, with a robust premium of 10.7% above the prices set by authorised dealers.
As per a snapshot from January 9, 2026, the value retention for Rolex watches has declined by 3.4% since October 1, 2025, now standing at 6.7%. This value retention (VR) metric, used by Morgan Stanley in their quarterly analyses of the luxury secondary market, illustrates that Rolex watches typically sell for an average of 6.7% above their suggested retail prices.
In the last quarter of 2025, average secondary market prices for Rolex saw an increase of 4.6%. The drop in VR was attributed to rising retail prices from authorised dealers.
The previous trend of profiting significantly from flipping Rolex watches on the secondary market has diminished, with the exception of particularly sought-after models like steel Daytonas. Even though pre-owned Rolex watches generally retain a premium, consumers selling to professional dealers will often receive offers considerably lower than these market rates, with consignment sales also resulting in losses once fees are accounted for.
Morgan Stanley’s data, sourced from WatchCharts, identifies only three brands—Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet—as maintaining positive value retention. The report does not include brands like Richard Mille or low-volume artisanal makers such as F.P. Journe, De Bethune, or MB&F.
The year 2025 marked a period of consolidation in the luxury watch secondary market, as price declines observed since 2022 slowed across most brands while select few experienced value increases. Rolex prices rose by 4.6%, while Tudor observed a 3.2% increase. Other brands such as Cartier, Omega, and Audemars Piguet also saw modest gains.
Patek Philippe excelled with a notable 12.1% rise in resale values.
Only the “big three”—Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe—continue to turn a profit in the secondary market. Other brands, despite showing some improvement in pre-owned prices, are still facing significant markdowns.
Cartier, a brand gaining strength in the primary market, was noted for being sold at an average discount of 30.9% in January, although this was an improvement from a more substantial -34.6% earlier in the year. Other brands such as Omega, IWC, Tudor, and Vacheron Constantin are seeing discounts ranging from 36.4% to 41.1%.
Patek Philippe’s strong performance could see further enhancement, particularly as authorised dealer prices are set to drop by approximately 8% in the United States on February 1, with other regions anticipating increases.
Morgan Stanley has also revised its methodology for calculating value retention in its latest report. Previously reliant solely on US market data, the analysis will now incorporate figures from the UK, Germany, Japan, and Hong Kong, retroactively adjusting historical VR figures as a result.
Furthermore, sales of Certified Pre-Owned Rolex watches through official dealer channels are increasingly swaying average secondary market prices. In 2025, Rolex CPO sales amounted to $530 million, with more than $170 million generated in the last quarter, reflecting a more than 60% increase from $319 million in 2024. EveryWatch estimates that official CPO sales now account for over 10% of the entire secondary market value for pre-owned Rolexes.
