Story Highlight
– Rolex and luxury watches entered bubble pricing frenzy.
– Market peaked in May 2022, then declined 60%.
– Recovery seen in secondary market since summer 2025.
– Rolex Certified Pre-Owned sales hit $594 million in 2025.
– Market now offers choices: retail, discounts, or certified pre-owned.
Full Story
Economics students can now explore an intriguing new addition to their studies of historical asset bubbles: pre-owned Rolex watches. This category, alongside the notorious Dutch tulip mania and dotcom stock fluctuations, reflects the phenomenon of price volatility driven by market enthusiasm.
Leading up to spring 2022, the market witnessed a substantial surge in watch prices as enthusiastic buyers, many without prior interest in luxury timepieces, scrambled to acquire models with long waiting lists from authorised dealers or to profit swiftly on the secondary market.
Before this rapid rise, only select watch models fetched prices exceeding retail on the secondary market. However, during the post-pandemic spending surge, virtually any timepiece from Rolex or Richard Mille was viewed as a viable investment, alongside numerous sports and complicated watches from Patek Philippe and the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, with a few limited editions from Omega and IWC also attracting attention.
A sudden shift occurred in May 2022 when the market collapsed, resulting in a drastic decline of about 60% in secondary market prices for top brands.
This correction unfolded sharply at first and continued to gradually decline until spring 2025. However, over the past year, the overall secondary market has seen a slow recovery, as indicated by reports from WatchCharts and Morgan Stanley.
It is crucial to emphasise that the fluctuations noted pertain solely to the secondary market prices. An alternative metric, value retention, assesses the difference between authorised retail prices and those on the secondary market.
Throughout the fluctuations in secondary market pricing, very few watch models, aside from the well-known ‘Big Three’—Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe—along with Richard Mille, consistently traded above retail.
Morgan Stanley’s recent report for the first quarter of 2026 highlights a steady recovery in pre-owned prices, which has gained momentum since last summer. Of the 35 brands monitored by WatchCharts, 25 are now seeing positive movement.
Quarterly data shows increases in secondary market prices for Rolex (+1.7%), Patek Philippe (+3.0%), Cartier (+1.9%), and Omega (+1.9%), with Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet both up by 2.0%.
While changes in price of +/- 2% for brands with lower sales volumes is not definitive, the widespread nature of the recovery speaks to an encouraging trend, particularly for brands like Cartier, Omega, Tudor, TAG Heuer, and Vacheron Constantin.
The metric of value retention (VR), which calculates how secondary market prices compare to recommended retail prices, has shown improvement across all brands tracked. This growth indicates a healthier dynamic between primary and secondary markets, reflecting trends not seen since 2022.
“Although several brands have increased retail prices across various markets, the overall increase did not surpass the gains seen on the secondary market,” notes Morgan Stanley.
Despite the general improvements in value retention, only Rolex and Patek Philippe watches provide immediate profit avenues for resellers still active in the market.
Current watch buyers face a straightforward decision: purchase from authorised dealers for a complete customer experience and benefits, or seek discounts of 30-40% on the less regulated secondary market.
Another option available is the certified pre-owned route offered by luxury retailers and brands, including Rolex. The Rolex Certified Pre-Owned (RCPO) programme has established itself as a trusted standard for buying authenticated, serviced, and restored watches, fostering positive relationships with authorised dealers.
In 2025, the RCPO programme generated $594 million in sales, representing over 10% of the secondary market transactions for Rolex, which totalled $5.8 billion. Data from EveryWatch reflects these trends, aggregating insights from significant secondary market players and retailers.
Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts estimate slightly lower sales figures for RCPO at $514 million for 2025 and noted a decrease from $160 million in fourth quarter 2025 to $155 million in the first quarter of 2026.
Currently, the number of RCPO retailers has grown modestly by six this year, reaching 154 total locations. While ten retailers added the programme, four have removed it, suggesting this is a development to monitor closely.
Leading entities in the RCPO market, including Watches of Switzerland, Bucherer, and The 1916 Company, continue to hold a substantial share, collectively representing around half of all available RCPO inventory.
